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I hope Connelly is more right than Parcells, because my record this year is horrible. But its been particularly horrible in games where the spread was decided by a razor-thin margin. Experts will tell you teams in games decided by single scores will have records fairly close to .500 over a relevant sample set, because there is a lot of luck involved. My record in games decided by a field goal or less this year is 1-7. In games where the result was decided by a single score or less, its 5-14. Ive made some bad picks, but Ive had bad luck; 60 percent of my wins have been by two scores or more, compared to 40 percent of my losses. To the bets! Thursday 1. Houston at Cincinnati +8.5: Cincinnati is a tough place to play on a weeknight, and I do not know how healthy Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.

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